Stock
Market Forecast. Is it possible?
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Predicting is telling about the
future within certain error. The error must be
small enough to make the prediction meaningful.
From the emergence of stock markets, investors
have used charts, fundamental analysis, and
mathematical models in attempts to predict stock
prices. Furthermore, many have speculated about
the impacts of political changes on stock
markets, and debated whether stock market
forecasting is possible. Suppose the markets are
governed by certain rules which are known. Also
suppose that these rules are deterministic and
that this perfectly predictable market begins to
be frequently shocked by random variations. Then
you will face a problem: even with the knowledge
of these rules you will not be able to prove on a
closed form that these rules do exist. However if
the shocks are not continuously disturbing our
deterministic market, in the meantime between
perturbations a glimpse into the future can take
place. This idea can be developed to the fullest
as is briefly shown by these HINTS on market forecast.
Another interesting opinion is showed on the
article of Kevin Kelly on Cracking
Wall Street. Or how chaos
theory can explain market moves by
Blake Lebaron (article from Scientific American).
Take a look at the market crash of Oct
19th, 1987. |